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Introduction

66

The Commission was instructed to project the probable future trends of population in the United States, to examine the implications of these trends, and to inquire into “... the various means appropriate to the ethical values and principles of this society by which our Nation can achieve a population level properly suited for its environmental, natural resources, and other needs." The preceding volumes have presented the Commission's research on population trends and their consequences, and its research on population distribution policy. The present volume presents the Commission's research on population growth policy.

Population changes take place through births, deaths, migration, and the interaction of these with the aging process. The aging process is inflexible-we get one year older every year. Births, deaths, and migration are changeable, but death is outside the realm of population policy in a democratic society. Individuals wish to postpone death, never to accelerate it, and society acts accordingly. Hence, death, or rather its postponement, is the subject of health policy, and is excluded from the realm of population policy.

Migration is variable and is, furthermore, manipulable. Policies affecting internal migration within the United States were the subject of Commission research the results of which are presented in Volume V. The demographic aspects of immigration and emigration were analyzed in Volume I; but, aside from the descriptive information on immigration policy obtained from Federal agencies, the research program of the

Commission included no policy papers specifically addressed to this subject. In this volume, only “Ethics, Population, and the American Tradition" by the Task Force on Ethics and Population treats immigration policy. In any event, the available information about emigration and about the social and economic impact of immigration is so scanty that the value of any such research would have been limited.

Fertility, therefore, is the dominant topic of the policy papers-an appropriate emphasis, given the dominance of fertility in this country's present population growth equation-but it is not the only one. The Commission's policy views as reflected in its Report were of two kinds: “activist" in the sense of searching for measures desirable in their own right which would have the demographic consequence of minimizing future population growth, and "accommodationist" in the sense of acknowledging the inevitability of substantial future population growth and the necessity for doing a far better job of providing for it than we have done in the past.

Accommodation in this sense is no easy task as indicated, for example, by the Commission's anxieties over the ability of inherited structures of local government to manage the affairs of large metropolitan communities. Two papers in this volume assisted the Commission in developing its approach to the problems of living with population change. They are discussed below under the heading "Guiding Population Change."

THE SETTING: INSTITUTIONAL,
LEGAL, ETHICAL

The development of population policy presupposes (1) the recognition of a population problem; (2) an understanding of the nondemographic forces affecting the rates of birth, death, and migration that contribute to the problem; (3) criteria for the selection and application of measures to alter these forces; and (4) some consensus on these issues and on the proper role of government in population matters.

The importance of the definition of the problem is reflected in the fact that discussion of the diagnosis can generate as much if not more heat as discussion of proposed remedies. This occurs because of the assumption that different diagnoses imply different remedies, and because of differences in perspective, that is, the principal terms on which the analyst (lay or expert) comprehends the forces at work in the society around him. Groups differently positioned in the society differ with respect to their perceived stakes in issues that involve population and also vary with respect to ethical and ideological values, all of which leads to a willingness to regard some components of a problem, but not others, as variable. Hence, conflict over the diagnosis may arise among persons, groups, and interests with respect to:

1. The cognitive acceptability of the diagnosis, that is, its scientific competence in a broad sense-what sense it makes in light of one's perception of how society works and what are live options for intervention and what are dead ones.

2. The ethical acceptability of the implied remedy. 3. The political acceptability of the implied remedy, that is, its consonance with a group's or individual's priorities, agenda for social action, and the culprits held responsible for social ills.

Thus, in developing this theme, the Task Force paper states that what many whites define as a problem of excess black fertility, many blacks see as a problem of racism, poverty, and inadequate health services. The "new left" looks on the definition of pollution as a population problem as a special-interest view "serving the interests of industry, which would rather see births controlled than its own polluting, ruinous industrial practices." And so forth. There appear to be significant political and ideological stakes in the definition of the problem.

The Task Force paper develops criteria for population policy, based on a review of broad American values which may be affected by population trends, the values of a variety of groups within the society which have an explicit or implicit bearing on the definition and resolution of population problems, and the ethical

problems posed by population trends. Their work is organized around four key values: freedom, justice, the general welfare, and security/survival. The paper develops criteria for evaluating population policies and applies them to broad classes of population policies (ranging from "voluntarist" to "government involuntary controls") and to particular policy proposals. (Another classification and analysis of policies is presented by Lowi in Volume IV.)

The problem is perceived as lack of freedom of choice in the paper by Pilpel and Ames. By their diagnosis, with respect to family planning, "our legal system has never given voluntarism a chance." They identify legal constraints that need to be removed in order to provide freedom of choice with respect to contraception, abortion, and voluntary sterilization.

Much of the discussion of population policy has been cast as a conflict between the assertion of a need for coercive measures versus a need to preserve voluntarism. Blake, accepting the necessity for ultimately bringing births back into balance with deaths, rejects the "coercion versus voluntarism” framework for discussing the way to accomplish this. This organization of the debate is, in her view, based on a faulty diagnosis of the forces affecting the birth rate. Her analytical focus is on adult sex role expectations, the degree to which these are dominated by the culturally prescribed primacy of parenthood, and the ways in which these expectations shape personality development. Her conclusion extends that of Pilpel and Ames; she says:

Our society is already pervaded by time-
honored pronatalist constraints . . . we cannot
preserve a choice that does not genuinely
exist... it makes no sense to institute anti-
natalist coercions while continuing to support
pronatalist ones.

Where Blake's focus is on the informal constraints shaping individual behavior having relevance for the birth rate, Noonan and Dunlap focus on the ways in which laws designed with nondemographic ends in mind may have consequences for the birth rate by guiding the choices people make. Noonan and Dunlap review a broad range of laws governing marriage, taxation, housing, health, welfare, education, employment, and other matters. They evaluate the grounds for making changes in each, and bring legal and moral criteria to bear on the selection of appropriate courses of action. On tax exemptions and welfare law:

If children are treated as individual citizens in
their own right, benefits to them cannot be
considered as economic bonuses to their par-
ents.... To injure children in order to teach
their parents is indefensible.

The authors give their strongest endorsement to a set of legal changes that would enhance the opportunity and attractiveness of alternatives to childbearing.

Demeny evaluates possible population policies from the point of view of their impact on individual economic welfare. His analysis is consistent with Blake's with respect to the priority given to dismantling pronatalist influences before undertaking penalties on procreation. It is different from Blake's in analytical focus; where Blake concentrates on the modification of social roles, Demeny concentrates on the modification of exchange relationships. His analysis leads him to a position quite opposite from that of Noonan and Dunlap with regard to the allocation of the benefits of public education; they see children as the beneficiaries, while he sees their families as the beneficiaries. The difference has important implications for policy.

Despite their variety, these five papers provide strong support for the Commission's finding of some pronatalist biases in the American society and for the position taken by the Commission that, with respect to reproduction, "the objective for American society should be to make the childbearing decision as free as possible of unintended societal pressures."

FERTILITY CONTROL

The ability of families and individuals to regulate their own childbearing depends in part on the scientific understanding of the reproductive process and the use of this knowledge as the basis for developing means of intervention in the process. Segal provides a review of recent and potential future developments in these respects.

Jaffe makes use of the 1970 National Fertility Survey to describe patterns of contraceptive use (including contraceptive sterilization) and the distribution of = contraceptive services. He describes the shifts in Federal family planning policy during the 1960's, and outlines a program to implement a proposed national policy to reduce unwanted pregnancy, an objective which he finds desirable on demographic grounds, but justified on other = grounds.

The debate over abortion is analyzed by Callahan. Having synthesized the various proposals, he finds that the differences between the arguments advanced in their behalf arise from differences in (1) the kinds of arguments given the greatest weight (ethical, legal, social, or medical); (2) whose rights are given the greatest weight (the woman, fetus, doctor or society); (3) the definition of "human" and hence the determination of when life begins; and (4) the hopes and fears of participants in the debate with respect to social change. He concludes that the basic dispute is over the nature of the issues at stake

and that there is little possibility of negotiation among the contending parties.

The prevention of pregnancy and venereal disease among teenagers is the objective of Gordon's paper. He criticizes existing analyses of teenage pregnancy; discusses teenage ignorance and misapprehensions about sex, sexuality, and contraception and adult misapprehension about teenagers; reviews sex education programs; and presents recommendations as to the content and auspices of such programs. Gordon's commentary in common with those of the Task Force, Pilpel and Ames, and Callahan, also deals with abortion.

These four papers contribute to the discussion of what the Task Force designates "voluntarist policy" issues, as distinct from incentive programs, shifts in socio-cultural conditions, and government involuntary controls.

EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME POLICY

Among the principles enunciated by the Commission was that "... governmental programs in the future must be sensitized to demographic effects." While Noonan and Dunlap review the presumed effect of many kinds of laws and programs, Cain concentrates on one type-income maintenance programs. Finding the data inadequate for evaluating the effect of existing programs on the fertility of recipients, Cain develops a methodology for assessing the implications of the proposed Family Assistance Plan and a modification thereof. He presents an analysis of the ways these programs are likely to increase fertility, and provides numerical estimates of the effect. "The overall thrust of income maintenance laws is pronatal," he finds. He recommends modifications which would reduce this effect, notably a reduction of the disincentive to women's working caused by the implied tax on recipients' earnings that results from the sharp cutoff of benefits above certain income levels. He also notes other factors at work, such as the reduction in poverty, which may be expected to mitigate the impact of these programs on the national birth rate. Finally, he urges well-designed research in a field where, as in many other areas of government activity, there exists no sound empirical basis for evaluating the effects of major programs.

Preston reviews the evidence for the proposition that work and motherhood are antagonistic, including some new evidence which does not appear in the relevant papers in Volume I. He finds the antagonism "clearly present" and examines and recommends measures which would be expected to reduce fertility by increasing women's employment opportunities and reducing disincentives to work.

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Volume II also contains papers bearing on the effects of employment and income policy on fertility, notably, but not exclusively, the Reed-McIntosh paper on costs of children and the Morss-Ralph paper on government subsidization of life styles associated with childbearing.

GUIDING POPULATION CHANGE

Regardless of how trends in fertility develop over the next few years, the United States is in for substantial additional population growth. The coming-of-age of the generations born between World War II and the mid1960's is producing strong demographic pressures that will cause the number of births to exceed the number of deaths until well into the next century.

How should the nation prepare for such increases? And what grasp of the consequences will inform the choices made by the citizens of the future, in their private reproductive behavior and in their support for or rejection of the policies that will help determine both the rate of growth and the ways in which the growth that occurs is accommodated?

Viederman presents a concept of population education; distinguishes it from the related fields of environmental, family life, and sex education; and proposes a program to raise the general level of literacy about population. McGrath presents a review of municipal, regional, and statewide planning; points to some successes; and suggests ways in which Federal guidance can enhance the prospect of success in the accommodation of increasing numbers, while enhancing the quality of life. His emphasis is on selecting opportunities for population redistribution within and between metropolitan centers, and on the program and analytical components required to accomplish this.

PUBLIC OPINION

Important sources of information for the Commission were its research program, presented in Volumes I to VI, its public hearings, presented in Volume VII, and a nationwide public opinion survey. The survey obtained information on the level of public knowledge about population, attitudes about the importance of population trends and the role of government in intervening in them, and attitudes toward government in general. Wolman summarizes the results of the survey with respect to population growth issues. Papers by Hetrick, et al. (Volume IV) and by Mazie and Rawlings (Volume V) develop other dimensions of the Commission's survey results.

Population attitudes are also the subject of the paper by Rindfuss, who makes use of results of three surveys, including the National Fertility Surveys of 1965

and 1970, to develop trend data. He finds increasing public concern over world and United States population growth since 1965. He also finds reason to believe that this change has affected women's attitudes toward childbearing.

The survey results show that, when asked, the public at large expresses the view that population trends in the United States are important, in significant respects undesirable, and that the government should do something. However, the results also show that the public at large knows little about population trends and that it accords higher priority to government action on other specified issues than it does to action on population.

If there is some question as to the salience of population issues among the general public, there appears to be none with regard to the treatment of these issues on television. The Heffner paper, based on observation of a composite week of network program. ming in 1971, shows that population-related activities, such as childbearing, marriage, and adoption, are dealt with almost exclusively as events affecting individuals, and that the aggregative consequences for population trends are almost never commented upon. Furthermore, such content is "overshadowed" by other meanings of the events in question. Heffner and his associates find an instructive bifurcation in the television treatment of family size. Where family life is the subject of the show, there is an explicit celebration of the joys of having children and the average number of children is relatively large. But where families are simply actors, nearly all families have only one or two children.

THE POLICY PROCESS

The transition from concern to action is the subject of three papers. Piotrow reviews the respective roles of the Congress and the Executive Branch in publicizing and legitimizing population as an issue, and in population legislation. She finds that Congress, not the Executive, has generally taken the initiative, and sees reason to expect continued leadership from this quarter.

Miller examines the constitutional basis for population policy. The Constitution is silent on population policy, although not on population statistics-it provided expressly for the decennial census. Miller finds constitutional grounds for congressional action and argues that the response of the Supreme Court will be based on its perception of the need for population policy, based on assessments of the social impact of policy.

Bachrach and Bergman examine the affiliations of witnesses at congressional hearings on the nation's main family planning act and on the act establishing the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. They also examine the composition of the

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