become dependent upon foreign sources for approximately twothirds of our newsprint or its raw material. The factors which have held our newsprint industry practically at a standstill in the face of rapidly growing domestic requirements are pertinent in a study of timber depletion. The various requirements of paper making have restricted the number of species which have gone into newsprint paper, and incidentally into all kinds of pulp and paper, very largely to four, of which spruce supplied 55 per cent of the total pulp manufactured in 1917, hemlock 16, balsam 7, and poplar 6, a total of 84 per cent from four species. The overcentralization of the industry in the Northeast and Lake States and the consequently serious overcutting of the timber in these regions is due in no small degree to this restricted use and the occurrence of these species chiefly in New England and the Lake States. The lumber industry has followed the timber, but a much smaller investment per unit of output is required in the lumber mill than in the pulp and paper plant. On a prewar basis an investment of approximately $1,500 per thousand board feet of daily product is required in lumber manufacture, whereas pulp and paper establishments require approximately $50,000 per thousand feet of daily consumption. Large investments have therefore tended to hold the pulp and paper industry in the regions in which it was first established, and timber has been hauled increasing distances to the mills. A rail and water transport exceeding 500 miles is now not uncommon. When overdevelopment of the American industry in the Northeast and the Lake States, as compared with timber supplies within our own borders, prevented further development, and when Canada began to take measures to withhold pulp wood for the upbuilding of a home industry, new construction to meet growing demands shifted to the other side of the international boundary, where it was welcomed by the Canadian and the various provincial governments. Since 1909, the year which marked the suspension in American development, Canadian production has increased from 150,000 tons to 800,000 tons, or approximately 433 per cent. located in Maine. One of the best supplied pulp and paper companies in the State has holdings which at the present rate of cutting various estimates give a life of from 40 to 60 years. Holdings of another large company are estimated at about 20 years; of still another at 15 or 16 years. There are about 15 mills which have no lands of their own and which will probably have difficulty in purchasing material within 10 years. The pulp and paper mills of the Northeast in general are becoming more and more dependent upon Canadian wood. So far as known, no company in the Northeast has sufficient holdings under present methods of management to guarantee anything approaching a continuous supply. Probably not over six companies control or own timberlands with supplies for more than 20 years. The drain upon the forests for newsprint is very heavy. One large daily, for example, which consumes 20,000 tons a year, requires for that brief period the product of a century's growth on 7,500 acres of eastern spruce forest. The present situation from the standpoint of timber supplies in the eastern United States for the newsprint industry is therefore very unfavorable, and the future holds no particular promise. The supplies already limited are being rapidly cut; many mills are already without timber of their own; the stands in eastern Canada have apparently been very much overestimated in the past; and little concerted effort has yet been made to increase the production of pulp woods in the Northeast, where the industry is at present centered. Only such effort, together with the development of the industry in the West and in Alaska, where there are still large stands of timber suitable for newsprint paper, can assure production in the United States which will even approximate domestic requirements. The situation as to other classes of paper is somewhat similar, although it may not yet be so serious, and is usually of less importance from the standpoint of public welfare. ALASKAN SUpplies of PULPWOOD. Alaskan timber is so important from a national pulp-wood standpoint that it can not be allowed to pass without special comment. The timber, which is of particular interest, is on the Tongass National Forest in southeast Alaska. While much of this timber is of saw-timber size and will in the future become increasingly valuable for lumber, it is believed that its real future is for pulp and paper. The stands are largely western hemlock and Sitka spruce, species now in use on the Pacific coast for newsprint and other paper manufacture. It is estimated that there are in the Tongass National Forest in the neighborhood of 70 billion feet board measure, in a comparatively narrow belt along the 12,000 miles or more of coast line. Water power is available, as is also deepwater transportation from numerous mill sites. This timber is for sale under practical and favorable terms and in amounts The depletion of supplies in the Lake States is clearly indicated in the rapidly increasing distances from which the pulp and paper mills find it necessary to secure their material. A representative of one of the purchasing companies which supplies a large number of the Wisconsin mills reports that in 1904 supplies were largely obtained within the State. Five years ago it had become necessary to go far north into Minnesota, but it was rarely necessary to ship material from points more than 50 miles north of Duluth. At the present time, however, a very material part of the supply is secured from the extreme northern part of the State. Spruce from Minnesota is now being hauled from 700 to 750 miles by railroad to the Wisconsin mills, and from Canada up to distances of 1,000 and 1,200 miles. The situation has become so critical that the Wisconsin mills are seriously considering the possibility of securing their raw materials from the Rocky Mountain region of Montana. For hem-sufficiently large to justify the installation of plants. Since it is lock the paper industry must compete with the lumber industry for logs of saw timber size, and, unfortunately, from the standpoint of future supplies, the cut now includes a very considerable amount of material obtained from trees under saw timber diameters. It is reported from New York, where nearly 50 per cent of our domestic newsprint production is now centered, that 60 per cent of the pulp and paper mills have absolutely no timber supplies of their own. For these mills there seems to be little ahead except closing in a comparatively few years. At least 60 per cent of the remaining spruce pulp wood in New York is in the State preserves, on which no cutting is allowed. In New Hampshire the coniferous pulp wood has been cut very heavily, and 10 or 12 years will probably see the end of the supply. Aside from the State preserve in New York, the bulk of the remaining coniferous pulp wood of the East is in a National Forest it will be cut under methods which will insure permanence of production. It is estimated that the cut from this region alone will insure a perpetual supply large enough to meet one-half of the present newsprint requirements of the United States. There seems to be no reason why southeastern Alaska, situated in practically the same latitude as Norway and Sweden, should not become the center of a large pulp and paper industry which will be a source of local prosperity and of great national importance in the light of our present dependence upon foreign pulp and paper production. Alaska, in other words, is one of the centers to which the newsprint industry of the United States should look for a large future development. The same is true of other centers in the West, where immense sources of pulp wood supply are now almost wholly undeveloped. Much of this timber is in the National Forests. THE MOVEMENT OF PRICES. Figure 2 shows the trend of pulp-wood prices in New England and contract newsprint prices and consumption in the United States since 1899. Spot market prices are shown for 1919 and 1920. Competition among American mills and between the American and Canadian product kept down the contract price of newsprint until 1916, in spite of the increasing cost of pulp wood. Another factor in keeping prices of newsprint down was the introduction of cheaper methods of manufacture, the between 1900 and 1909. It is here that the speculative element in the handling of a necessary commodity at a time of shortage is fully brought into play. Unfortunately it is upon the spot market that the smaller newspapers, least able to increase returns by increasing advertising material and raising their advertising rates, must depend. The depletion of timber supplies is first shown in competition for pulp wood and steadily increasing prices. Competition among producers for the sale of their product resulted for a considerably longer period in keeping newsprint prices at a fairly constant level. Only when the available timber sup effect of which was, in part, at least, to help to reduce prices plies of the regions in which the newsprint industry had been curve as it stands does not take one important factor into account. Prior to the war the contract price was f. o. b. point of consumption, but during the war contract prices were changed to f. o. b. paper mill. Spot market prices are shown only during 1919 and 1920, because prior to that time they are rot available as separate quotations. In general, however, spot market prices before the war followed contract prices closely, and at times were even below them. Prior to the war a relatively small percentage of the total newsprint consumption was handled on the spot-market basis. The larger newspapers particularly secured all, or practically all, of their supplies under contract. During the last year the larger newspapers have found it increasingly difficult to secure all of their supplies under contract, and have been forced to secure the remainder in the open market. It is in the open market that the full effect of competition for inadequate supplies is shown, and this is reflected in the much higher prices. The developed became so short as to prevent normal additions to plant capacity and demand for newsprint exceeded its production did newsprint prices advance. Depletion has resulted since 1899 in a large increase in both pulp-wood and newsprint prices. It is merely the time when and rate at which the increase took place that has varied. NAVAL STORES SUPPLIES. DEVELOPMENT OF THE INDUSTRY. So pronounced is depletion of the timber upon which our naval-stores industry depends for its supplies that it is commonly regarded as a dying industry in the United States. In colonial days, when the wooden shipbuilding industry of New England was of great importance, naval stores for domestic consumption, as well as for export, were secured from the pitch pine from Maine to New Jersey. The present-day naval-stores industry dates back also to early colonial times, but uses the longleaf and slash pines of the South. The very name of the industry is no longer appropriate, since the bulk of its products-spirits of turpentine and rosin-are largely used for purposes having no connection with shipping. They are important constituents in such products as soap, paint and varnish, paper sizing, printing ink, greases, oils and belt dressing, soldering flux, shoe polishes, roofing and linoleum, fly paper, sealing wax, electrical supplies, matches, and various articles in the drug trade. The annual products of the industry exceed $40,000,000 in value, more than half of which comes from exports. Since the Civil War it has held a place among the industries of the South inferior only to agriculture and lumbering. Since 1820, or in fact since statistics of any value are available, American production has led the world, and even at the present time is approximately 80 per cent of the total world production. For the South as a whole, production has been falling off for a number of years. From slightly less than 34,000,000 gallons of turpentine in 1899, the first year of satisfactory statistics, it declined to approximately 17,000,000 gallons in 1918, a decrease of 50 per cent. Rosin production during the same period fell a proportionate amount. The average production of the last six years has been 25,000,000 gallons of spirits of turpentine and 834,000,000 pounds of rosin, a production which has been easily absorbed by the world's industries. REMAINING SUPPLIES. A study of the opinions and estimates of a number of the bestinformed men in the industry, men representing every part of the territory and having more than ordinary means of information, indicates that there are not more than 31,000 crops of turpentine timber available and uncupped in the naval stores territory to-day. From this amount of timber it is estimated that not more than 166,000,000 gallons of turpentine and 5,000,000,000 pounds of rosin can be produced. In addition to the uncupped supply of timber, that which has been or is now being worked will probably yield 60,000,000 gallons of spirits of turpentine and 1,900,000,000 pounds of rosin, making the total available supply 226,000,000 gallons of spirits of tur pentine and 6,900,000,000 pounds of rosin. Our own markets longleaf pine in Louisiana the removal of 20 billion feet for and export demands will, it is believed, absorb 25,000,000 gallons of spirits and 825,000,000 pounds of rosin annually. At this rate the supply of timber now in sight would be exhausted in less than 10 years. It will actually be extended beyond this period by the production of wood turpentine and rosin and also by the gradual falling off in the rate of production as the remaining timber supplies become exhausted. The indications are, however, that the production of gum naval stores in the southern pine belt will within 10 years have been reduced to such an extent that export markets and even our own must look elsewhere for their main supplies. | lumber is predicted during the next 10 years. A yield of not to exceed 13,500 crops is anticipated. Operators familiar with the situation agree that 10 years will probably see the beginning of a very rapid decline in production from Louisiana, and 15 years the end of the present supply. The naval stores industry of the South has migrated from State to State, following the timber. North Carolina, where now production is negligible, was for many years the leading State. South Carolina has been practically abandoned by the industry for more than 20 years. Rising prices have induced a few operators to go back over the territory to work scattered second-growth stands and isolated patches of virgin timber, but it seems probable that these supplies will be exhausted within four years. Well-informed men in the industry believe that in from four to six years under present demands Georgia will take its place with North and South Carolina as an insignificant factor in production. Florida has been the mainstay of naval stores production during the last 10 years, but the end of its supply is definitely in sight. Of late the value of its product has been more than twice as much as that of any other State, and nearly half the value of the naval stores produced in all Southern States. Fairly accurate data on the resources of Florida have been compiled by some of the large naval stores interests. This information, checked by estimates of well-informed operators in various parts of the State, indicates that at the current rate of production Florida can not hold its own for more than eight years. That the State will soon be brought to the position of North and South Carolina and Georgia is improbable, since a very considerable portion of the remaining timber is held by strong corporations in large, well-blocked bodies, and it is to be expected that exploitation will be more conservative and less wasteful and hurried. It is the opinion of the well-informed men in the Florida industry that not more than 5,000 crops of uncupped timber available for operation remain in the State. | Sawmills will probably remove 7,500 million feet of the 11 billion feet of longleaf pine in Texas during the next 10 years, and Texas is the last stand of the turpentine industry in the South. Naval-stores production in Texas will be increased rapidly as the Eastern States are exhausted, but operations will be seriously curtailed by the desire of timber owners to exploit the stands for lumber. The naval-stores industry estimates that there are not more than 4,600 crops in Texas and predicts practical exhaustion within 10 years. METHODS OF EXPLOITATION. While the rate of depletion of the supply of naval-stores timber has been greatly accelerated during the last few years by the rapid cutting of timber controlled by lumber interests, the naval-stores operators themselves are responsible for the fact that what was once the largest and finest naval-stores forest in existence is about to become a matter of history. The method of exploitation commonly followed during the last hundred years is crude, wasteful, destructive, and sadly shortsighted. Under the driving urge of maximum financial returns in a minimum of time, regardless of after effects, turpentine orchards even to-day are operated so destructively that the trees are exhausted in from four to six years and turned over to the sawmill man showing a loss due to turpentining of from 20 to 50 per cent. That quick exhaustion of the turpentine productivity of the tree, and, in many cases, its early destruction, is not a necessity in the production of naval stores is shown by the French navalstores industry. For the last 80 years a system of operation has been followed in France that permits an orchard to be worked for turpentine for from 30 to 50 years, practically without loss of timber. Coupled with this admirable system of operation is a plan of management under which a crop of new timber is continually growing into maturity to fill the gap left by the harvesting of mature timber. As a result of such foresight the French supply of naval stores is increasing yearly, both in value and in amount. Conservative methods of turpentining in southern pine forests have been developed by the Forest Service and are now in commercial use on the Florida National Forest, and on private holdings of some of the more progressive operators. Inertia, not financial obstacles, must be regarded as the chief reason why these conservative methods have not been more generally Much of the longleaf and slash pine of Alabama has already been worked, and the greater portion of the remaining stand of uncupped timber is in the hands of large lumber companies. Turpentine operators, judging from the present rate of lumbering, foresee a possible increase in production for the next three years, followed by a very rapid reduction. They believe that the State will be practically eliminated as a large producer of naval stores within five years. General opinion places remain-employed. They make entirely possible, when combined with ing stands at not more than 1,000 crops, including all second growth now merchantable. Well-informed observers believe that Mississippi will show an increase in production during the next four or five years. The timber, however, both here and in Louisiana and Texas, is largely owned by lumbermen who will force a rapid exploitation for naval stores in order that the lumbering may not be delayed. Five thousand crops of uncupped timber are estimated. It is predicted that the crest of production will have been passed within five years, and that this will be followed by a rapid decline. Within eight years Mississippi will not be a leading State in naval-stores production. The industry is comparatively new in Louisiana. The timber is largely held by lumbermen who excluded naval-stores operations very generally until four or five years ago. Much of the timber has been and some of it is still being cut unturpentined. The average turpentine lease on many of these large holdings does not exceed two years in length. Of the 27 billion feet of intelligent forest management, a permanent as against a selfdestroying industry. DEPLETION AND PRICES. As in the case of lumber and newsprint, the superficial cause of abnormal prices is a combination of abnormal demand and shortage of the manufactured product. The stocks of turpentine and rosin at the chief points of concentration were lower at the end of the last naval-stores season than has been the case in many years. At the same time the demand, both foreign and domestic, has been stronger than at any other time during the past five years. The natural result has been keen competition for supplies on hand and consequent rise in price. As in the case of lumber and other industries, there have been increased costs. It has been difficult to secure adequate supplies of skilled labor. Credit inflation alone would have increased prices, but the fundamental difficulty has been the depletion of the timber supplies from which naval stores can be secured and the great limitation of the producing regions already discussed. The price of spirits of turpentine, which for very many years fluctuated slightly above and below 50 cents a gallon, had risen nearly five times to a price of $2.30 early in 1920, and similar increases occurred in prices for various grades of rosin. With a prospective reduction in domestic production, the United States is facing in the near future rapidly decreasing ability to export naval-stores products, and even within a few years to meet home demands from the southern pine territory. There are possibilities of development of the industry with other species in the West, but under much more adverse conditions as to accessibility, labor, etc. The only other possibilities are imports or the use of substitutes. ORIGINAL AND PRESENT FORESTS OF THE UNITED STATES. ORIGINAL FOREST AREA. The original forest area of the country is estimated to have been in the neighborhood of 822,000,000 acres. (See Table 3 and fig. 3.") In the eastern United States a magnificent forest 13 Various terms found in these and other accompanying tables and figures are used with the following meanings: "Saw-timber areas" and "saw-timber stands" are stands of sawtimber size in accordance with the prevailing logging and milling practice of the region concerned. of old-growth timber, wonderfully rich in variety of species and quality of material, stretched in an almost unbroken expanse from the Atlantic Ocean to the prairies. Pines and other softwoods predominated in the north and along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, while in the Appalachians and on the fertile soils of the Central States and the lower Mississippi Valley "Cordwood areas" and "cordwood stands" are stands not now of sufficient size to produce saw timber under the prevailing local logging and milling practice. "Nonrestocking areas comprise lands that once supported a stand of timber, which is now gone, and which is not being renewed. 66 and Virgin areas virgin stands" comprise stands in which there is no net growth, such growth as takes place being offset by loss from decay and other causes. This excludes certain old-growth stands, as, for example, in California, which have not been lumbered and are ordinarily regarded as virgin" forests, but in which a net growth is now taking place as a result of the present protection of such stands following their opening up by fire. " "Growing areas and growing stands" include all stands, irrespective of their size, in which current growth is in excess of current loss; that is, in which there is a net growth. "Saw timber" comprises that portion of the stand on saw timber areas of sufficient size for manufacture into lumber. Board feet estimates of saw timber are given in terms of lumber tally rather than log scale. "Cordwood comprises that portion of the stand on saw-timber areas not of sufficient size for manufacture into lumber and the entire stand on cordwood areas. It may thus include occasional trees of saw-timber size which occur in cordwood stands but not in sufficient quantity to be lumbered. "Total stand" includes both saw timber and cordwood. oak, hickory, ash, chestnut, yellow poplar, and other valuable hardwoods abounded. In the West practically all of the area not too arid to support tree growth was also covered with a forest of virgin timber interspersed with occasional patches of younger, even-aged stands, as of Douglas fir and western white pine, following fire. Along the Pacific coast the heavy stands of redwood, Douglas fir, western hemlock, and western red cedar formed one of the finest forests in the world. PRESENT FOREST AREA. To-day of the original forest area there remains but little more than half or approximately 463,000,000 acres, excluding in both cases from 100 to 150 million acres of low-grade woodland and scrub. (See Table 4 and fig. 4.) Furthermore, so far has the utilization of the original forest progressed that of the total remaining area only 30 per cent, or 137 million acres, is virgin forest. The remainder includes 112 million acres of second-growth saw timber, 133 million acres of second growth below saw-timber size, and 81 million acres which are not restocking. Cutting has naturally been heaviest in the most fertile and most densely populated sections of the country. Thus in the Central States the original forest has been reduced to one-third of its former extent, while in the Rocky Mountains 95 per cent of it still remains. More than half of the virgin forests of the country are in the Western States, only 15 per cent of the virgin forest area being included in the Northern and Central States. Over nearly a fifth of the present forest area the original timber growth is not being renewed. The largest areas of nonrestocking land are in northern New England, Pennsylvania, the northern Lake States, the pine lands of the South Atlantic and Gulf States, and parts of the Pacific coast States. TABLE 3.-Original and present forest areas in the United States by regions. The original stand of saw timber has been estimated at not less than 5,200 billion board feet. In the light of the cut that has already been obtained, and of present standards of utilization, it is probable that the actual stand was considerably larger. Even taking the lower figure, however, less than half of the original stand, or 2,215 billion board feet, still remains (see Table 5 and fig 5). Of this some 1,755 billion feet is softwoods and 460 billion feet hardwoods. Approximately 70 per cent of the total stand, including the best and most accessible timber, is in private ownership, while about 498 billion board feet, or 22 per cent, is included in the National Forests. States and municipalities together hold only 59 billion board |