mentioned the fact that the importations of liquors and food "luxuries" have been very sharply curtailed in 1917 and 1918, which means that the net figures shown for the last two years more nearly represent supplies of essential foodstuffs than do the corresponding figures for earlier years. The shortage of particular items, such as sugar, mutton, butter, eggs, etc., has been fairly acute. A decline of 25 per cent in the net imports of grain (1917 figures compared with those of 1912) has been compensated in a measure by increased domestic production and larger importations of cereal products, such as flours and meals. The most striking change in the direction of the British food trade is the tremendous expansion of imports of cereals and meats from the United States. The importations of sugar from Germany have, of course, ceased during the war, and have been replaced to some extent by increased imports from Cuba. It is impossible to determine to just what extent the total domestic production of foodstuffs has varied during the war period, since recent production figures are not available for meats, dairy products, and fruits. Vigorous attempts have been made to increase the production of agricultural produce, and as far as cereals are concerned, at any rate, these attempts have met with some success. The combined production of wheat and oats in 1917 was 281,078,000 bushels,1 as compared with 222,203,000 in 1912. Further efforts were made to increase production in 1918. The total area in England and Wales under grain in the past year amounted to 7,481,000 acres, as compared with 6,035,000 acres in 1917, and increase of 24 per cent.2 This area is the largest under grain since 1879. The acreage devoted to potatoes was also increased by about 25 per cent and is much the largest on record. Making all reasonable allowances for overestimates and damage, it is highly probable that the total grain and pulse crop of England and Wales in 1918 exceeded even the exceptional harvest of 1917 by from 50 to 70 million bushels. It should not be concluded from these data, however, that Great Britain has attained or even approximated a position of agricultural self-sufficiency. Under the urge of war conditions the production of certain essentials has been increased, it is true, but it is likely that with the removal of these conditions there will be less interest in fostering agricultural development in the United Kingdom, despite the protestations of politicians to the contrary. Further, it should be emphasized that even if the present rate of production were maintained it would not be large enough to change England's pre-war position in the food trade of the world. Still further, the increase in the grain acreage has been largely at the expense of the area devoted to hay, roots, and other distinctly fodder crops. The total production of hay reported for England and Wales in 1918 is over a million tons less than the average for the years 1908 to 1917. This decline in fodder crops will tend, of course, to affect the food situation by reducing the domestic production of meats and dairy products. 1 This figure was furnished by the United States Department of Agriculture. Unless otherwise stated, the data given in this chapter concerning the agricultural situation in England and Wales during the past year are based on preliminary returns of the British Board of Agriculture as reported in various consular advices. Because of its importance in British trade the food situation is one of the most important aspects of the economic position of the United Kingdom. In the following sections, accordingly, an attempt will be made to present an analysis of this situation in some detail. CEREALS. The cereal group is the most important division of the food trade of the United Kingdom. Liverpool has been for many years the leading wheat market of the world. The following table shows the imports and exports of the important items in the grain trade of the United Kingdom for the period 1912-1918: THE GRAIN TRADE OF THE UNITED KINGDOM.1 Imports. Exports. Imports. Exports. Imports. Exports. Imports. Exports. Annual (and Monthly) Statements of Trade of the United Kingdom. The above figures show a significant decline in both gross and net importations of grain. In the years 1914 to 1917 net imports average about 85 per cent of the 1913 figure. The figures for 1918 indicate a decline in net imports to less than 50 per cent of the normal pre-war level. Rice is the only cereal which shows a significant increase in both gross and net trade during the war. It is noticeable that the decrease in the importations of barley is particularly sharp. This is due largely to the curtailment of the manufacture of alcoholic beverages, and does not indicate any serious reduction in the food supplies. Another fact of interest shown by the above data is that total exports of grain increased in the years 1914 to 1916, and then fell to a little over a million bushels in 1917 and to about 160,000 bushels in 1918. Great Britain also imports large quantities of cereal products, such as meals, flours, etc., and these importations must be taken into account in conjunction with the grain trade to determine the general position of the United Kingdom with respect to cereal foods. The following table shows the extent of this trade in cereal products: THE TRADE IN IMPORTANT CEREAL PRODUCTS.1 Imports. Exports. Imports. Exports. Imports. Exports. Imports. Exports. 1 Annual (and Monthly) Statements of Trade of the United Kingdom. 2 Not given. The increase in the trade in wheat flour and other cereal products: during 1917 to 1918 is very noticeable. The figures for 1918 show an increase in net imports to about 250 per cent of the trade in 1913. It appears from a comparison of the two preceding tables, accordingly, that the sharp decline in the importations of grains in 1918 has been partly compensated by increased receipts of cereal products. It is rather difficult to determine just what is responsible for the increase in the imports of flour. The change is probably due in part to the need for conserving ship space. It indicates some decline in the English milling industry; but it is unlikely that this condition will be permanent, since this industry may be expected to recover fully with a return to peace conditions. In addition to the items shown in the above table there is a very considerable trade in prepared foods, such as macaroni, shredded wheat, etc. Imports of such cereal foods amounted to about 325,000 hundredweights in 1912, and in 1917 totaled over 1,200,000 hundredweights. At the same time exports of such foods have decreased from 140,000 hundredweights in 1912 to 60,000 hundredweights in 1917. As stated above, the United Kingdom has made very strenuous efforts to increase the production of agricultural products during the war, and this effort has met with some success, at least as far as the grains are concerned. The following table shows the production of leading grains for the years named: It is noticeable that the increase in the total production of grains was not important until 1917; and the point should be emphasized that it is in connection with the crop for 1918 that much of the discussion relative to increased production in the United Kingdom has arisen. The figures for 1918 given above, it should be noticed, are based on preliminary returns of the British Board of Agriculture and are for England and Wales only. If these early estimates are verified by final reports and if the crops in Ireland and Scotland are at least normal, the total production of cereals for the United Kingdom in 1918 should amount to 400,000,000 bushels, an increase over the total from 1913, for example, of about 30 per cent. It is very doubtful, however, if this rate of production will be long maintained after peace is established. By combining trade and production figures, approximate consumption data for the United Kingdom can be determined as follows: TRADE, PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS. 1 The production item for 1918 is the estimated crop for England and Wales. Since the production figure for 1918 is for England and Wales only, no conclusion is drawn as regards the amount available for consumption in the past year. It should be noticed that no allowance is made in this table for the net importation of cereal products and prepared cereal foods. These foodstuffs, as previously stated, have been received in increased quantities in the last two years of the war, and this factor, coupled with declining exportations, has served to relieve the food shortage to a considerable extent. Because of the necessity for providing adequate supplies for the army, however, there have been serious threatened and actual shortages in the stocks available for civilians, and it has been necessary to adopt rationing plans, price fixing, and other schemes of Government control. It may be concluded, however, that in regard to cereals, at any rate, the United Kingdom has not been as seriously underfed during the war as many of the other European countries. The direction of the cereal trade of the United Kingdom shows some important changes since 1913. The following table sets forth the imports of several important cereal products, by leading countries, for the years 1912-1918: IMPORTS OF CERTAIN CEREALS, BY LEADING COUNTRIES.1 1 Annual (and Monthly) Statements of Trade of the United Kingdom. The most important development has been the change of the position of the United States as an exporter of cereals to the United Kingdom. In 1917 the United States occupied the first place in each of the five items shown in the above table, while in 1912 the only commodity of those listed in which the United States led was wheat flour, and of this commodity less than 50 per cent came from this country. It is noticeable also that the trade with Canada has increased sharply in per cent and quantity. Trade with Russia, which was important as regards barley and oats prior to the war, has disappeared. In 1913, 19 per cent of the oats received came from Germany, and during the war this trade has, of course, ceased. In 1912 British India led in wheat and barley importations. This trade with India has suffered a sharp decline. Another noticeable fact is that Argentina has fallen from first to second place in imports of corn to the United Kingdom and from first to a poor third in the case of oats. Exports of cereals are small and have declined to negligible amounts during the last two years of the war. Almost all of these exports go to European countries. In view of the size of the export figures, there are no significant developments in the direction of the trade during the war period. 119025-19- -2 |