## The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive ScienceNick Chater, Mike Oaksford The rational analysis method, first proposed by John R. Anderson, has been enormously influential in helping us understand high-level cognitive processes. The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited 'Rational Models of Cognition' (OUP, 1998). It brings together developments in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods. It synthesizes and evaluates the progress in the past decade, taking into account developments in Bayesian statistics, statistical analysis of the cognitive 'environment' and a variety of theoretical and experimental lines of research. The scope of the book is broad, covering important recent work in reasoning, decision making, categorization, and memory. Including chapters from many of the leading figures in this field, The Probabilistic Mind will be valuable for psychologists and philosophers interested in cognition. |

### From inside the book

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**rule**( Bayes , 1763/1958 ) . When stated in terms of abstract random variables , Bayes '

**rule**is a simple tautology of probability theory . Assume we have two random variables , A and B.1 One of the principles of probability theory ...

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**rule**seems relatively innocuous ( and perhaps rather uninteresting ! ) . Bayes '

**rule**gets its strength , and its notoriety , by making some assumptions about the variables we are considering and the meaning of probability . Assume that ...

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**rule**is the MAP estimator . Alternatively , if the loss function is the square of the error L ( 0 , α ( d ) ) = ( 0– a ( d ) ) 2 then the best decision

**rule**is the posterior mean . This approach can be extended to dynamical systems ...

### Contents

prospects for a Bayesian cognitive science | 3 |

A primer on probabilistic inference | 33 |

Rational analyses instrumentalism and implementations | 59 |

Copyright | |

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### Other editions - View all

The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford Limited preview - 2008 |

The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford No preview available - 2008 |