The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive ScienceNick Chater, Mike Oaksford The rational analysis method, first proposed by John R. Anderson, has been enormously influential in helping us understand high-level cognitive processes. The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited 'Rational Models of Cognition' (OUP, 1998). It brings together developments in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods. It synthesizes and evaluates the progress in the past decade, taking into account developments in Bayesian statistics, statistical analysis of the cognitive 'environment' and a variety of theoretical and experimental lines of research. The scope of the book is broad, covering important recent work in reasoning, decision making, categorization, and memory. Including chapters from many of the leading figures in this field, The Probabilistic Mind will be valuable for psychologists and philosophers interested in cognition. |
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Page 38
... posterior distribution . The first method is maximum a posteriori ( MAP ) estimation : choosing the value of 0 that maximizes the posterior probability , as given by ( 9 ) . The second method is computing the posterior mean of the ...
... posterior distribution . The first method is maximum a posteriori ( MAP ) estimation : choosing the value of 0 that maximizes the posterior probability , as given by ( 9 ) . The second method is computing the posterior mean of the ...
Page 39
... posterior being H NH Na + N , but the posterior mean is H NH + 1 Na + N +2 · 2 mean is sensitive to the fact that we might not want to put as much weight in a single head as a sequence of ten heads in a row : on seeing a single head ...
... posterior being H NH Na + N , but the posterior mean is H NH + 1 Na + N +2 · 2 mean is sensitive to the fact that we might not want to put as much weight in a single head as a sequence of ten heads in a row : on seeing a single head ...
Page 522
... posterior complexity distribution 390 , 392 posterior degrees of belief 132-3 , 151 posterior distribution 39-41 posterior mean 38-9 posterior odds 36-8 , 41 posterior predictive distribution 38 posterior probability 35-6 , 122 , 308 ...
... posterior complexity distribution 390 , 392 posterior degrees of belief 132-3 , 151 posterior distribution 39-41 posterior mean 38-9 posterior odds 36-8 , 41 posterior predictive distribution 38 posterior probability 35-6 , 122 , 308 ...
Contents
prospects for a Bayesian cognitive science | 3 |
A primer on probabilistic inference | 33 |
Rational analyses instrumentalism and implementations | 59 |
Copyright | |
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The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford Limited preview - 2008 |
The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford No preview available - 2008 |
Common terms and phrases
algorithm alternative analysis approach approximate argument associated assumed assumption attribute Bayesian behavior beliefs Cambridge causal cause Chater choice cluster cognitive complexity computational concept conditional consider correlation decision depends described developed distribution effect environment estimate et al evidence example expected experience experimental explain framing function given heuristic human hypothesis important individual inference involved Journal judgment language learning logic mean memory methods natural normative Oaksford objects observed optimal options outcomes parameters participants particular performance possible posterior predictions present Press principle prior probabilistic probability problem produce prospect Psychological question rational rational analysis reasoning reference relation relative represent representation require response Review rule sample Science selection semantic shows similar simple statistical structure subjective suggest task theory tion trials University utility variables weight