## The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive ScienceNick Chater, Mike Oaksford The rational analysis method, first proposed by John R. Anderson, has been enormously influential in helping us understand high-level cognitive processes. The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited 'Rational Models of Cognition' (OUP, 1998). It brings together developments in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods. It synthesizes and evaluates the progress in the past decade, taking into account developments in Bayesian statistics, statistical analysis of the cognitive 'environment' and a variety of theoretical and experimental lines of research. The scope of the book is broad, covering important recent work in reasoning, decision making, categorization, and memory. Including chapters from many of the leading figures in this field, The Probabilistic Mind will be valuable for psychologists and philosophers interested in cognition. |

### From inside the book

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**outcomes**, a minimum and maximum . Believing that there were two

**outcomes**but having no a priori reason to believe that one

**outcome**was more likely than another , people could use Laplace's principle of indifference and treat the ...

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**outcomes**can have more weight than previous ones . Due to this recency weighting ( for example see Hertwig et al . , 2006 ) , experiential - learning models would yield amplified differences in the gambles ' values regardless of the ...

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**outcomes**so as to predict future

**outcomes**. We discuss the two pieces of the models in turn . Parameterized output distribution One standard assumption is that the

**outcome**r , on trial t is drawn from a Gaussian distribution : P ( r , x ...

### Contents

prospects for a Bayesian cognitive science | 3 |

A primer on probabilistic inference | 33 |

Rational analyses instrumentalism and implementations | 59 |

Copyright | |

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### Other editions - View all

The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford Limited preview - 2008 |

The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford No preview available - 2008 |