## The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive ScienceDepartment of Psychology Nick Chater, Nick Chater, Mike Oaksford The rational analysis method, first proposed by John R. Anderson, has been enormously influential in helping us understand high-level cognitive processes. The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited 'Rational Models of Cognition' (OUP, 1998). It brings together developments in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods. It synthesizes and evaluates the progress in the past decade, taking into account developments in Bayesian statistics, statistical analysis of the cognitive 'environment' and a variety of theoretical and experimental lines of research. The scope of the book is broad, covering important recent work in reasoning, decision making, categorization, and memory. Including chapters from many of the leading figures in this field, The Probabilistic Mind will be valuable for psychologists and philosophers interested in cognition. |

### From inside the book

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( 2001 ) ; Nelson ( 2005 ) ; McKenzie ( 2006 ) Oaksford & Chater ( 1994 , 1996 ,

1998 , 2003 ) ; Laming ( 1996 ) ; Over & Jessop ( 1998 ) ; Oaksford

1999 ) ; Klauer ( 1999 ) ; Hattori ( 2002 ) ; Oaksford & Wakefield ( 2003 )

McKenzie ...

( 2001 ) ; Nelson ( 2005 ) ; McKenzie ( 2006 ) Oaksford & Chater ( 1994 , 1996 ,

1998 , 2003 ) ; Laming ( 1996 ) ; Over & Jessop ( 1998 ) ; Oaksford

**et al**. ( 1997 ,1999 ) ; Klauer ( 1999 ) ; Hattori ( 2002 ) ; Oaksford & Wakefield ( 2003 )

McKenzie ...

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Hertwig

as decisions from experience . A number of studies have demonstrated that

decisions from experience are distinct from decisions from description ( e . g . ,

Hau et ...

Hertwig

**et al**. ( 2004 ) referred to decisions based on thus sampled experienceas decisions from experience . A number of studies have demonstrated that

decisions from experience are distinct from decisions from description ( e . g . ,

Hau et ...

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( 2004 ) and Weber

, gives rise to more accurate knowledge of the objective parameters of the payoff

distributions ; ( d ) more accurate knowledge derived from larger samples ...

( 2004 ) and Weber

**et al**. ( 2004 ) ; ( c ) sampling larger samples , ceteris paribus, gives rise to more accurate knowledge of the objective parameters of the payoff

distributions ; ( d ) more accurate knowledge derived from larger samples ...

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### Contents

prospects for a Bayesian cognitive science | 3 |

A primer on probabilistic inference | 33 |

Rational analyses instrumentalism and implementations | 59 |

Copyright | |

20 other sections not shown

### Other editions - View all

The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford Limited preview - 2008 |

The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford No preview available - 2008 |

### Common terms and phrases

algorithm alternative analysis approach approximate argument associated assumed assumption attribute Bayesian behavior beliefs Cambridge causal cause Chater choice cluster cognitive complexity computational concept conditional consider correlation decision depends described developed distribution effect environment estimate et al evidence example expected experience Experimental explain framing function given heuristic human hypothesis important individual inference involved Journal judgment language learning logic mean memory methods natural normative Oaksford objects observed optimal options outcomes parameters participants particular performance possible posterior predictions present Press principle prior probabilistic probability problem produce prospect Psychological question rational rational analysis reasoning reference relation relative represent representation require response rule sample Science selection semantic shows similar simple statistical structure subjective suggest task theory tion topic trials University utility variables weight