## The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive ScienceThe rational analysis method, first proposed by John R. Anderson, has been enormously influential in helping us understand high-level cognitive processes. The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited 'Rational Models of Cognition' (OUP, 1998). It brings together developments in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods. It synthesizes and evaluates the progress in the past decade, taking into account developments in Bayesian statistics, statistical analysis of the cognitive 'environment' and a variety of theoretical and experimental lines of research. The scope of the book is broad, covering important recent work in reasoning, decision making, categorization, and memory. Including chapters from many of the leading figures in this field, The Probabilistic Mind will be valuable for psychologists and philosophers interested in cognition. |

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normative probabilistic approach to the

**conditional**provided by

**probability**logic ( Adams , 1998 ) , it is argued that a more extreme form of the MP - MT asymmetry may be normatively defensible ( McKenzie , 2004 ) .

Indeed , the probability of the conditional is not even well - defined when the antecedent is false , e.g. , P ( the moon ... In Equation ( 8 ) , attempting to evaluate the

**conditional probability**would yield 0/0 , which is undefined .

Thus , in the absence of an assertion of the appropriate

**conditional probability**, they arise as a normative con- sequence of determining this probability . - An everyday counterexample that has been suggested to us , as demonstrating ...

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### Contents

prospects for a Bayesian cognitive science | 3 |

A primer on probabilistic inference | 33 |

Rational analyses instrumentalism and implementations | 59 |

Copyright | |

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### Other editions - View all

The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford Limited preview - 2008 |

The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science Nick Chater,Mike Oaksford No preview available - 2008 |